John Greenwood’s quarterly economic outlook – Q3 2018

Video | 16 July 2018 | John Greenwood, Chief Economist, Invesco Ltd

  • Will a trade war undermine economic growth? 
  • While it is possible that political issues could hamper the economic upswing in some countries, my view remains that the business cycle is the ultimate and dominate driver of asset prices over any extended period.


Through most of the years since the global financial crisis of 2008-09 the key issues have been economic in nature – the deleveraging of household and corporate balance sheets after a period of excessive indebtedness, gradual economic recovery and more recently the start of the restoration of normality to monetary policy in the US. 

However, since the start of 2018 economic and monetary issues have been taking second place to political events. First there has been President Trump’s intensifying trade war with China, but also with NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) partners Mexico and Canada, and with the EU.

In addition, the EU has been grappling with Spanish separatism, the Italian crisis following the March election which resulted in two populist parties forming a coalition, and a European-wide debate over immigration which threatened to become critical for German Chancellor Merkel.

Read the full quarterly economic outlook from John Greenwood

Investment risks

The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

Important information

This web page is marketing material and is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities.

Where John Greenwood has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice.

John Greenwood

John Greenwood

Chief Economist, Invesco Ltd.